Category: Residential

Big Bear is off to a great start in 2012.  Skiers are flocking to the Big Bear Mtn. Resorts claiming Big Bear has better skiing conditions than the Mammoth Lakes area.  The New Years Holiday has just finished and private home vacation rental companies and local business received a great shot in the arm to start the year.

Real Estate in Big Bear ended on a high note with 103 closed residential sales in December.  That was the highest closing month in 2011.  With properties in escrow dropping by 1/3 in the past 45 days We should see closed unit numbers in the 60 unit range in January 2012.  Available inventory will remain in the low 600 unit range until the spring when inventory that was removed from the market for the winter months or those on vacation rental programs are re-listed for the  summer selling season.

Where is the Big Bear Real Estate Market going?  That depends on who you talk to.  Most current homeowners tell me they expect the market to get better….some of them admit it really is more of a hope than an expectation.  Buyer’s generally feel prices are at their lowest are are approaching the bottom of the market.  Personally, I don’t think there will be much of a change over the next 12 months than we experienced in 2011.

1.  Seller’s who sold and closed escrow were highly motivated.  2.  Buyer’s negotiated from a position of strength and felt like they got a bargain.  3.  Transactions involving Bank financing or Bank sellers were almost universally difficult to close, delayed past contract dates, and uncertain to close due to lenders adding additional requirements up until the last days of closing.

This is the market we are in.  Please feel free to call with any questions or help with your real estate needs in Big Bear!

As we enter what is traditionally the most active 90 days in the Big Bear real estate market it is interesting to look at what the actual sales numbers are, what they tell us about active buyers and sellers, and the chance to anticipate what the next 90 days will bring.

The market statistics to the right can be enlarged by simply clicking on the image.  Two things stand out as I review this months numbers.  The first is that the market bounced back in July after a disappointing May and June.  With the slew of bad news in the economy, the debt limit issue, and repeated negative reports on the housing market, sales continue which is great news.  Looking at the pending traditional sales there is every reason to believe that sales units will continue  above 65 units per month for the next 90 days.  We may even get to the 100 unit range.  I have added the pending short sales and conditional sales at 49 units.  Those are sales that are 50/50 on closing and often take 60 days or more to move through the short sale process.

The second trend that is a carry over from June is the high number of price reductions.  Nearly 35 percent of properties have reduced price for the past two months in a row.  Clearly a good portion of sellers are truly motivated to sell.  For this reason and others I don’t expect any increases in prices and I have not heard anyone who does except for property owners who will not sell at today’s current market value.

One of my friends here in Big Bear who works at Coldwell Banker has an interesting video entitled “What’s Selling in Big Bear?”  He gives a great description of what is selling and what is not.  Three takeaways from his report are:  There is a lot of activity under $300,000 and the market over $300,000 is slow and competitive. 2.  Distressed sales only account for 45% which contradicts what I hear from both buyer’s and sellers.  3. Properties are selling on average near 100% with foreclosures selling on average 101%.  Buyer’s find their discount buying well priced properties not by making offers with steep discounts. If you are a buyer or selling agent, low offers go nowhere, insult the seller and waste time.

As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

The Big Bear Real Estate market is continuing to show signs of weakness.  Closed sales dropped again unexpectedly to 47 units in June.  We typically would expect to see an increase in closed units at this time of year.  Interestingly, the number of pending sales has increased to over 160.  Part of the reason the closed sales have not increased is that  75 percent of all the pending transactions are either short sales or REO properties.  Short sales take much longer to close than an equity seller or an REO transaction.

Bargain hunting is the rule for buyers. Short sale properties and REO’s are driving market value with Banks and distressed sellers pricing aggressively to compete for a limited buyer pool.  Equity seller’s for the most part have not been willing to compete on price.  They represent only 25% of the current pending inventory.

More disturbing from my view for equity sellers is the fact that most don’t have to sell.  And, because of that  belief they hold on too long waiting for the market to recover and continue to lose 1% of their value each month.   Sometimes that 1% in value equals 5% of their equity When confronted with the fact that NO ONE is forecasting any significant price appreciation for at least 4-5 years.  They respond with “Well, you don’t have a crystal ball.”‘

For the next few months the dynamics and attitudes of both buyers and sellers will likely remain the same.  Call me with any questions or comments at (909) 584-2202 or email me at MarkDolan@RealtyExecutives.Com