The Big Bear Real Estate market is continuing to show signs of weakness.  Closed sales dropped again unexpectedly to 47 units in June.  We typically would expect to see an increase in closed units at this time of year.  Interestingly, the number of pending sales has increased to over 160.  Part of the reason the closed sales have not increased is that  75 percent of all the pending transactions are either short sales or REO properties.  Short sales take much longer to close than an equity seller or an REO transaction.

Bargain hunting is the rule for buyers. Short sale properties and REO’s are driving market value with Banks and distressed sellers pricing aggressively to compete for a limited buyer pool.  Equity seller’s for the most part have not been willing to compete on price.  They represent only 25% of the current pending inventory.

More disturbing from my view for equity sellers is the fact that most don’t have to sell.  And, because of that  belief they hold on too long waiting for the market to recover and continue to lose 1% of their value each month.   Sometimes that 1% in value equals 5% of their equity When confronted with the fact that NO ONE is forecasting any significant price appreciation for at least 4-5 years.  They respond with “Well, you don’t have a crystal ball.”‘

For the next few months the dynamics and attitudes of both buyers and sellers will likely remain the same.  Call me with any questions or comments at (909) 584-2202 or email me at MarkDolan@RealtyExecutives.Com

Click on them thumbnail to the left to enlarge the current market conditions for the beginning of April 2011.  Nothing unexpected has happened so far in 2011.  I post the current conditions at the first of month to help you follow the trends as they happen.

Closed sales numbers are slightly higher than 2010.  That fact points to some stability in the market.  However, prices continue their slide downward.  Normally prices fall when supply exceeds demand.  That is not really the dominant factor right now.  The downward pressure on prices have to do with buyer expectations and fear.

There are 693 active residential properties for sale today which is healthy for the Big Bear Market.  We have had as many as 1,450 residential properties both in 1986 and in 2004.  The low by comparison is February of 2004 and 2005 when there were only 293 residential properties in all of Big Bear offered for sale.

The comments we hear from today’s buyers are that it is difficult to find a good property offered for sale.  Many are neglected or are being sold as distressed properties in “as is” condition.  But that is only part of the story, here is the most important thing we are seeing…

Buyer’s who find a property they like AND that is priced appropriately are still making low offers.  When we or the sellers provide information to establish value with sold comparables the buyer’s remain unwilling to raise their offers to full market value arguing prices are still going down so the only way they can avoid overpaying is to discount the price 5,10, or 15%.

In essence, buyer’s are creating the value declines they are afraid of.  Consumer confidence or the lack of it in real estate is the biggest challenge we face today.

I look forward to your questions or comments.  Spring is here… talk to you soon!

The Real Estate Market in Big Bear remains stable even though there is uncertainty in news reports.  Click on the photo to the left to enlarge the market statistics.

Last week a report stated property values in the largest markets could continue to fall as much as 25% and the next day a report was published showing that the market rebounded and stabilized in the 4th quarter of 2011.  It is hard to know what to believe.  However, here in Big Bear prices are still at their lowest point in over 7 years and demand seems strong enough right now to halt further price declines.

Recent heavy snow falls have given life to the ski resorts and renewed economic activity for local business owners in town.  Moderate snow fall over the entire winter made it possible for buyers of Big Bear property to look at homes with relative ease.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to contact me at (909) 584-2202.  In addition, you may find more information at a new website we have.  Check it out…. www.realtyexecutives.com/markdolan

Click on the page to the right to enlarge and view the current market statistics.

It is interesting to see the annual cycles in Big Bear repeat themselves every year.  Last year in January available inventory was in the mid-600 unit range and increased during the spring to over 900 units.  I expect that to happen again this year.

The 4th Quarter of 2010 was far better than 2009.  However, forecasts are mixed for 2011.  Most people HOPE that 2011 is going to be stronger with increasing sales and higher prices.  But, in truth most forecasts call for a 5% to 10% drop in prices NATIONWIDE in 2011.  Further, the price declines are expected with continued foreclosure activity and lukewarm buyer demand.

While Big Bear is a local market and not a major metropolitan area we are fed by the Southern California Real Estate market and economy.  Those market are surely going to effect what happens in Big Bear.

The bottom line is this: There has never been a better time to buy real estate.  If in fact the first 1/2 of 2011 is the bottom of the market, then the next 6 months will be the only opportunity to buy a Big Bear property at the very bottom of the market.

Check in with us frequently for more information!