As we enter what is traditionally the most active 90 days in the Big Bear real estate market it is interesting to look at what the actual sales numbers are, what they tell us about active buyers and sellers, and the chance to anticipate what the next 90 days will bring.

The market statistics to the right can be enlarged by simply clicking on the image.  Two things stand out as I review this months numbers.  The first is that the market bounced back in July after a disappointing May and June.  With the slew of bad news in the economy, the debt limit issue, and repeated negative reports on the housing market, sales continue which is great news.  Looking at the pending traditional sales there is every reason to believe that sales units will continue  above 65 units per month for the next 90 days.  We may even get to the 100 unit range.  I have added the pending short sales and conditional sales at 49 units.  Those are sales that are 50/50 on closing and often take 60 days or more to move through the short sale process.

The second trend that is a carry over from June is the high number of price reductions.  Nearly 35 percent of properties have reduced price for the past two months in a row.  Clearly a good portion of sellers are truly motivated to sell.  For this reason and others I don’t expect any increases in prices and I have not heard anyone who does except for property owners who will not sell at today’s current market value.

One of my friends here in Big Bear who works at Coldwell Banker has an interesting video entitled “What’s Selling in Big Bear?”  He gives a great description of what is selling and what is not.  Three takeaways from his report are:  There is a lot of activity under $300,000 and the market over $300,000 is slow and competitive. 2.  Distressed sales only account for 45% which contradicts what I hear from both buyer’s and sellers.  3. Properties are selling on average near 100% with foreclosures selling on average 101%.  Buyer’s find their discount buying well priced properties not by making offers with steep discounts. If you are a buyer or selling agent, low offers go nowhere, insult the seller and waste time.

As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

The Big Bear Real Estate market is continuing to show signs of weakness.  Closed sales dropped again unexpectedly to 47 units in June.  We typically would expect to see an increase in closed units at this time of year.  Interestingly, the number of pending sales has increased to over 160.  Part of the reason the closed sales have not increased is that  75 percent of all the pending transactions are either short sales or REO properties.  Short sales take much longer to close than an equity seller or an REO transaction.

Bargain hunting is the rule for buyers. Short sale properties and REO’s are driving market value with Banks and distressed sellers pricing aggressively to compete for a limited buyer pool.  Equity seller’s for the most part have not been willing to compete on price.  They represent only 25% of the current pending inventory.

More disturbing from my view for equity sellers is the fact that most don’t have to sell.  And, because of that  belief they hold on too long waiting for the market to recover and continue to lose 1% of their value each month.   Sometimes that 1% in value equals 5% of their equity When confronted with the fact that NO ONE is forecasting any significant price appreciation for at least 4-5 years.  They respond with “Well, you don’t have a crystal ball.”‘

For the next few months the dynamics and attitudes of both buyers and sellers will likely remain the same.  Call me with any questions or comments at (909) 584-2202 or email me at MarkDolan@RealtyExecutives.Com

The Big Bear Market Statistics confirm that Big Bear is still affected by the foreclosure and distressed property problem that you hear about from various news outlets.  Today’s headlines state: “Real Estate Double Dip Confirmed.”  The brief upswing in the market has stopped and pricing and sales numbers are again at the lowest point since the peak 5 years ago.  For a printable version of the market statistics click on the picture to the right!

Big Bear has a typical sales season each year with the lowest monthly sales closed in March, April, and May before rising activity kicks in around the first of June. Sales dropped to 51 units in May which in not a good sign.  The conflict I see in my real estate business right now is that some seller’s think the market is going to improve soon and the buyer’s think prices will go lower.  My experience over the past 27 years and all the signs I see as a professional real estate agent lead me to believe that the buyer’s are right on this one.  Call my office at (909) 584-2202 if you or someone you know needs excellent real estate service and help.

Click on them thumbnail to the left to enlarge the current market conditions for the beginning of April 2011.  Nothing unexpected has happened so far in 2011.  I post the current conditions at the first of month to help you follow the trends as they happen.

Closed sales numbers are slightly higher than 2010.  That fact points to some stability in the market.  However, prices continue their slide downward.  Normally prices fall when supply exceeds demand.  That is not really the dominant factor right now.  The downward pressure on prices have to do with buyer expectations and fear.

There are 693 active residential properties for sale today which is healthy for the Big Bear Market.  We have had as many as 1,450 residential properties both in 1986 and in 2004.  The low by comparison is February of 2004 and 2005 when there were only 293 residential properties in all of Big Bear offered for sale.

The comments we hear from today’s buyers are that it is difficult to find a good property offered for sale.  Many are neglected or are being sold as distressed properties in “as is” condition.  But that is only part of the story, here is the most important thing we are seeing…

Buyer’s who find a property they like AND that is priced appropriately are still making low offers.  When we or the sellers provide information to establish value with sold comparables the buyer’s remain unwilling to raise their offers to full market value arguing prices are still going down so the only way they can avoid overpaying is to discount the price 5,10, or 15%.

In essence, buyer’s are creating the value declines they are afraid of.  Consumer confidence or the lack of it in real estate is the biggest challenge we face today.

I look forward to your questions or comments.  Spring is here… talk to you soon!

The Real Estate Market in Big Bear remains stable even though there is uncertainty in news reports.  Click on the photo to the left to enlarge the market statistics.

Last week a report stated property values in the largest markets could continue to fall as much as 25% and the next day a report was published showing that the market rebounded and stabilized in the 4th quarter of 2011.  It is hard to know what to believe.  However, here in Big Bear prices are still at their lowest point in over 7 years and demand seems strong enough right now to halt further price declines.

Recent heavy snow falls have given life to the ski resorts and renewed economic activity for local business owners in town.  Moderate snow fall over the entire winter made it possible for buyers of Big Bear property to look at homes with relative ease.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to contact me at (909) 584-2202.  In addition, you may find more information at a new website we have.  Check it out…. www.realtyexecutives.com/markdolan