Big Bear is prepared for a white christmas with plenty of new snow and cold weather for making more. The skiers and snow boarders couldn’t ask for more.

The Big Bear Lake Real Estate Market has not cooled as quickly as many expected.  Inventory has fallen again which is expected at this time of year.  The surprise is the fact than pending sales in escrow did not drop over the past thirty days; they remained fairly flat.  96 residential sales closed in the Big Bear MLS in November.  With the current pending business it is likely we will see a strong December and January as well.

A curious anecdote is the disparity that remains in the opinion of what is happening in the real estate market between homeowners who would like to sell and the buyer’s willing to buy a property.  Two news reports released today are very clear: In the first report, the national market data indicates the bottom is approaching…one to two years from now.  The evidence is the price/rental ratios and price/income ratios are merging.  The second report  released indicates there are more foreclosures to coming for banks than the ones they have already processed over the past 5 years.  Many sellers I talk to are absolutely committed to waiting for the market to get better in order to get their price and are willing to ignore all evidence that that is a losing, costly proposition.  I have represented several sellers who literally spent their entire life savings paying for a home they didn’t want until they no longer had the ability to do so.  That in my opinion is the great tragedy of this real estate recession.

Buyer’s on the other hand seem to be quite comfortable and their behavior shows it.  90% of the buyer’s I talk to will not pay what they think a property is worth today.  They are only willing to pay what they think it will be worth at the bottom of the market.  During negotiations I see it time and time again.  The seller’s and listing agent provide closed comparable sales to justify a sales price of. let’s say, $400,000.  Even though the comparable properties are recent, relevant, and legitimately justify the sellers price the buyer often remains firm and will only pay $375,000.  The big question is:  Are those buyer’s anticipating lower prices or are they creating them?

I would like to hear what you think.

Happy Holiday from the Mark Dolan Sales Organization!

As we enter what is traditionally the most active 90 days in the Big Bear real estate market it is interesting to look at what the actual sales numbers are, what they tell us about active buyers and sellers, and the chance to anticipate what the next 90 days will bring.

The market statistics to the right can be enlarged by simply clicking on the image.  Two things stand out as I review this months numbers.  The first is that the market bounced back in July after a disappointing May and June.  With the slew of bad news in the economy, the debt limit issue, and repeated negative reports on the housing market, sales continue which is great news.  Looking at the pending traditional sales there is every reason to believe that sales units will continue  above 65 units per month for the next 90 days.  We may even get to the 100 unit range.  I have added the pending short sales and conditional sales at 49 units.  Those are sales that are 50/50 on closing and often take 60 days or more to move through the short sale process.

The second trend that is a carry over from June is the high number of price reductions.  Nearly 35 percent of properties have reduced price for the past two months in a row.  Clearly a good portion of sellers are truly motivated to sell.  For this reason and others I don’t expect any increases in prices and I have not heard anyone who does except for property owners who will not sell at today’s current market value.

One of my friends here in Big Bear who works at Coldwell Banker has an interesting video entitled “What’s Selling in Big Bear?”  He gives a great description of what is selling and what is not.  Three takeaways from his report are:  There is a lot of activity under $300,000 and the market over $300,000 is slow and competitive. 2.  Distressed sales only account for 45% which contradicts what I hear from both buyer’s and sellers.  3. Properties are selling on average near 100% with foreclosures selling on average 101%.  Buyer’s find their discount buying well priced properties not by making offers with steep discounts. If you are a buyer or selling agent, low offers go nowhere, insult the seller and waste time.

As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

The Big Bear Real Estate market is continuing to show signs of weakness.  Closed sales dropped again unexpectedly to 47 units in June.  We typically would expect to see an increase in closed units at this time of year.  Interestingly, the number of pending sales has increased to over 160.  Part of the reason the closed sales have not increased is that  75 percent of all the pending transactions are either short sales or REO properties.  Short sales take much longer to close than an equity seller or an REO transaction.

Bargain hunting is the rule for buyers. Short sale properties and REO’s are driving market value with Banks and distressed sellers pricing aggressively to compete for a limited buyer pool.  Equity seller’s for the most part have not been willing to compete on price.  They represent only 25% of the current pending inventory.

More disturbing from my view for equity sellers is the fact that most don’t have to sell.  And, because of that  belief they hold on too long waiting for the market to recover and continue to lose 1% of their value each month.   Sometimes that 1% in value equals 5% of their equity When confronted with the fact that NO ONE is forecasting any significant price appreciation for at least 4-5 years.  They respond with “Well, you don’t have a crystal ball.”‘

For the next few months the dynamics and attitudes of both buyers and sellers will likely remain the same.  Call me with any questions or comments at (909) 584-2202 or email me at MarkDolan@RealtyExecutives.Com

The Real Estate Market in Big Bear remains stable even though there is uncertainty in news reports.  Click on the photo to the left to enlarge the market statistics.

Last week a report stated property values in the largest markets could continue to fall as much as 25% and the next day a report was published showing that the market rebounded and stabilized in the 4th quarter of 2011.  It is hard to know what to believe.  However, here in Big Bear prices are still at their lowest point in over 7 years and demand seems strong enough right now to halt further price declines.

Recent heavy snow falls have given life to the ski resorts and renewed economic activity for local business owners in town.  Moderate snow fall over the entire winter made it possible for buyers of Big Bear property to look at homes with relative ease.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to contact me at (909) 584-2202.  In addition, you may find more information at a new website we have.  Check it out…. www.realtyexecutives.com/markdolan