The Big Bear year end numbers are ending up in a predictable  pattern.

The amount of new inventory entering the market has slowed dramatically.  Seller’s unsuccessful in 2011, for the most part, are removing their properties from the market with the hopeful expectation that the market will be more favorable in the spring of 2012.  Of course, foreclosure properties and short sale properties do not have typical sellers and will continue to be added to the inventory over the winter months.  Those properties are usually priced aggressively to compensate for long escrow periods, uncertain closings, or property condition problems.

80-100 closed units are expected in both November and December as buyer’s eager to spend the Christmas holidays push for their escrows to close in time.  However, new pending sales slow in December while the majority of people christmas shop instead of cabin shop.

To search all the available inventory that is updated several times each day visit my website and register by clicking here.

As we enter what is traditionally the most active 90 days in the Big Bear real estate market it is interesting to look at what the actual sales numbers are, what they tell us about active buyers and sellers, and the chance to anticipate what the next 90 days will bring.

The market statistics to the right can be enlarged by simply clicking on the image.  Two things stand out as I review this months numbers.  The first is that the market bounced back in July after a disappointing May and June.  With the slew of bad news in the economy, the debt limit issue, and repeated negative reports on the housing market, sales continue which is great news.  Looking at the pending traditional sales there is every reason to believe that sales units will continue  above 65 units per month for the next 90 days.  We may even get to the 100 unit range.  I have added the pending short sales and conditional sales at 49 units.  Those are sales that are 50/50 on closing and often take 60 days or more to move through the short sale process.

The second trend that is a carry over from June is the high number of price reductions.  Nearly 35 percent of properties have reduced price for the past two months in a row.  Clearly a good portion of sellers are truly motivated to sell.  For this reason and others I don’t expect any increases in prices and I have not heard anyone who does except for property owners who will not sell at today’s current market value.

One of my friends here in Big Bear who works at Coldwell Banker has an interesting video entitled “What’s Selling in Big Bear?”  He gives a great description of what is selling and what is not.  Three takeaways from his report are:  There is a lot of activity under $300,000 and the market over $300,000 is slow and competitive. 2.  Distressed sales only account for 45% which contradicts what I hear from both buyer’s and sellers.  3. Properties are selling on average near 100% with foreclosures selling on average 101%.  Buyer’s find their discount buying well priced properties not by making offers with steep discounts. If you are a buyer or selling agent, low offers go nowhere, insult the seller and waste time.

As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

The Big Bear Real Estate market is continuing to show signs of weakness.  Closed sales dropped again unexpectedly to 47 units in June.  We typically would expect to see an increase in closed units at this time of year.  Interestingly, the number of pending sales has increased to over 160.  Part of the reason the closed sales have not increased is that  75 percent of all the pending transactions are either short sales or REO properties.  Short sales take much longer to close than an equity seller or an REO transaction.

Bargain hunting is the rule for buyers. Short sale properties and REO’s are driving market value with Banks and distressed sellers pricing aggressively to compete for a limited buyer pool.  Equity seller’s for the most part have not been willing to compete on price.  They represent only 25% of the current pending inventory.

More disturbing from my view for equity sellers is the fact that most don’t have to sell.  And, because of that  belief they hold on too long waiting for the market to recover and continue to lose 1% of their value each month.   Sometimes that 1% in value equals 5% of their equity When confronted with the fact that NO ONE is forecasting any significant price appreciation for at least 4-5 years.  They respond with “Well, you don’t have a crystal ball.”‘

For the next few months the dynamics and attitudes of both buyers and sellers will likely remain the same.  Call me with any questions or comments at (909) 584-2202 or email me at MarkDolan@RealtyExecutives.Com

Now that our long winter is over…it seems like forever…Big Bear is heading into what promises to be terrific summer.  The lake is full and the snow is nearly gone.  A common comment from sellers in Big Bear is:  ” I am going to wait until spring to list my home for sale.”  Well it is now spring and there are a lot of new additions to the market… and a few that are getting a fresh look with price reductions heading into Memorial Day weekend.

First, is this Eagle Mountain Estates home first listed at $700,000.  It is now offered at $649,900.  Custom build by John Stavish for the present owner it has all the amenities you will need to enjoy your time in Big Bear.  It has 4 bedrooms and 3 baths all in over 2800 sqft of living area.  The kitchen features hardwood floors, granite counter tops, alderwood cabinets, and stainless steel appliances.  The property backs to an open reserve area for maximum privacy to enjoy the hot tub.  For more information on this property click the photo to the left.  Complete with a two car attached garage, vaulted ceilings, large windows and fireplace in the living room, stereo system wired into the kitchen, dining area, living room and back deck. In the master suite you will find a beautiful gas fireplace, jet bathtub and glassed in shower. Enjoy the views from sunny front decks and the spa on the back deck.

Another LANDMARK property that has recently been reduced is this Fox Farm property.  This property has been reduced to $849,000.  This property was offered for sale at one time for over $2,000,000.  It last sold for 1.2 M in 2001.  More importantly what it offers cannot be duplicated.  3.5 acres of mostly level land in the middle of Big Bear Valley assures you both privacy and the convenience you wouldn’t expect.  A single story spacious home that is log style is only part of the package.  The property also includes a gazebo with hot tub, 1800 dqft + barn, a 3 stall horse barn with additional tack room, and a dog kennel.  This home has been the location of a variety of events.  The home includes 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and more.  Click the link to the right for more photos and information.

Have a terrific Memorial Day weekend.  Call us at (909) 584-2202 if we can be of help to you this weekend!

Click on them thumbnail to the left to enlarge the current market conditions for the beginning of April 2011.  Nothing unexpected has happened so far in 2011.  I post the current conditions at the first of month to help you follow the trends as they happen.

Closed sales numbers are slightly higher than 2010.  That fact points to some stability in the market.  However, prices continue their slide downward.  Normally prices fall when supply exceeds demand.  That is not really the dominant factor right now.  The downward pressure on prices have to do with buyer expectations and fear.

There are 693 active residential properties for sale today which is healthy for the Big Bear Market.  We have had as many as 1,450 residential properties both in 1986 and in 2004.  The low by comparison is February of 2004 and 2005 when there were only 293 residential properties in all of Big Bear offered for sale.

The comments we hear from today’s buyers are that it is difficult to find a good property offered for sale.  Many are neglected or are being sold as distressed properties in “as is” condition.  But that is only part of the story, here is the most important thing we are seeing…

Buyer’s who find a property they like AND that is priced appropriately are still making low offers.  When we or the sellers provide information to establish value with sold comparables the buyer’s remain unwilling to raise their offers to full market value arguing prices are still going down so the only way they can avoid overpaying is to discount the price 5,10, or 15%.

In essence, buyer’s are creating the value declines they are afraid of.  Consumer confidence or the lack of it in real estate is the biggest challenge we face today.

I look forward to your questions or comments.  Spring is here… talk to you soon!